MARKET OUTLOOK (November 10, 2020)

November 12, 2020
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BEIJING-China’s State Development and Investment Corp has announced that it has signed procurement contracts with 20 foreign companies during the ongoing third China International Import Expo being held in Shanghai.

North Zone:

Cotton traded steady tone across major spot market of north India on Tuesday. Prices were up 20-30 compare to yesterday evening. Today weather clear. New crop ready delivery – In Punjab, cotton traded at Rs 4,240-4,270 a maund. In Haryana, it offered at Rs 4,140-4,170 a maund while in Upper Rajasthan, cotton quoted at Rs 4,140-4,180 a maund.

Central Zone:

Cotton spot prices steady tone across west India market on Monday. Gujarat weather clear, Sankar-6, 29mm, new crop good quality in Gujarat traded at Rs 39,800-40,300 a candy and 28.5 mm average grade quoted at Rs.38,800-39,300 a candy. V-797 sold at Rs 25,800-26,800 (13% trash condition) a candy. While in Maharashtra, new crop good grade cotton (30mm) quoted at Rs 39,700-40,200 a candy.

South Zone:

Cotton spot price was steady tone across the major trading centers of south India.

Pakistan :

Cotton prices down despite anticipated wide shortfall: KARACHI: Textile buyers are reluctant to build on lint inventory despite resurgence in export orders following the first wave of coronavirus lockdown as they fear a shutdown relapse, sending cotton prices down despite an expected wide shortfall this year, industry people said on Saturday. Prices of lint dropped in the range of Rs100 to Rs400 per maund (approximately 37 kilograms) during the outgoing week. Cotton prices in Sindh remained at Rs8,800 to Rs9,700 per maund. Punjab’s lint was sold at Rs9,400 to Rs9,700 per maund while Balochistan’s cotton fetched price of Rs9,200 to Rs9,400 per maund. Spot rate committee of Karachi Cotton Association reduced the spot rate by Rs400 per maund to Rs9,600 per maund. Naseem Usman, chairman of Karachi Cotton Brokers Association, said international market witnessed a mixed trend during the week. New York Cotton futures fluctuated due to dollar rates, cyclone and presidential elections in the US. Prices in Brazil, Argentina and China remained stable while rates in India increased during the week. Trade activity in the cotton market declined during the week, as new wave of COVID-19 put the sellers as well as buyers on alert, traders said. Although textile industry has seen export orders rebound after the lifting of lockdown globally and resilience in the market, there is fear of the second wave and subsequent lockdown with the UK – a main market for Pakistani textiles – re-imposing it for a month till December 2, they said. Textile exports increased 3 percent during the first quarter of the current fiscal year as compared to the corresponding period of last year. Textile exports amounted to $3.5 billion in July-September as against $3.4 billion a year earlier, according to the latest data of Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. Pakistan’s cotton arrivals in the factories have dropped 43.4 percent to 3.45 million bales with total production estimated at 6 million bales this year, meaning at least the quantity of the same level needs to be imported to meet the local requirements. Agriculture experts stressed need of revisiting the mechanism for cotton production estimates, as current mechanism is not providing the realistic estimates. There is need of the new survey of lands, as a large portion of cotton land is used for the cultivation of sugarcane now, they said. Pakistan’s cotton production has been static since 1990/91. In the last three decades, the only two better outputs of nearly 14 million bales were recorded in 2004/05 and 2014/15. There has been a constant decline in yield in the country due to multiple factors and no serious effort has so far been seen to revive production. Pakistan is among the top five largest producers of cotton in the world. About 1.3 million farmers cultivate cotton in the country. Cotton and cotton products account for nearly half of the foreign exchange earnings of the country and are the main input of the key textile industry. The experts said cotton production declines due to substandard seeds and bad weather especially heavy monsoon rains, which affected the quantity and quality of the crop. Due to unavailability of standard seed and pesticides, growers are discouraged of cotton cultivation and are moving towards other crops.

China :

Cotton futures close higher: ZHENGZHOU, Nov. 9 (Xinhua) — Cotton futures closed higher Monday in daytime trading on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE). The most active cotton contract for January 2021 delivery gained 5 yuan (about 75.62 U.S. cents) to close at 14,225 yuan per tonne. On Monday, the total trading volume for six listed cotton futures contracts on the ZCE was 557,782 lots with a turnover of 39.27 billion yuan. As the world's largest producer, consumer and exporter of textile, China listed cotton futures on ZCE in June 2004, helping cotton-related enterprises hedge the price risk.

Indian cotton crop estimated lower at 356 lakh bales this season but exports, offtake seen higher: Nov 09, 2020 – India’s cotton production for the current season (October 2020-September 2021) has been projected a tad lower compared with last year by trade body Cotton Association of India (CAI), but the natural fibre’s consumption and exports could be higher. The carryover stocks at the end of the season will be higher than normal, though lower than last season. According to CAI initial estimates, cotton production this season is estimated to be 356 lakh bales (of 170 kg each) against 360 lakh bales last season. The production is lower for two reasons. One, the area under cotton this year was two percent lower at 129.50 lakh hectares against 133.73 lakh hectares last year. This was mainly since farmers shifted to crops such as soybean or groundnut as cotton prices ruled lower for the most part of last season. Second, rains in growing parts such as Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Maharashtra have affected the crop. Reports from Telangana say that some growers have plucked out cotton from their farms due to damaged caused by heavy rains and planted alternative crops. The rains can affect the plucking of bolls in cotton plants later. There are two-three pluckings in the cotton plant, starting from October with the third plucking taking place around January. Trade sources said off late, the cotton crop has been affected by diseases in some parts of the country and details are awaited. According to available data, nearly 37 lakh bales have arrived across various markets in the country since October 1 with consumption being 33 lakh bales. CAI estimate, arrived at with participation from trade representatives across the country, including the Cotton Corporation of India, put the consumption of cotton higher at 330 lakh bales against 250 lakh bales last season. Last season, cotton consumption was affected as the textile industry had to shut down in view of the country-wide lockdown announced by the Union Government to tackle the spread of novel Coronavirus. The textile industry could not function fully at least until September and even now many units are not running to capacity. Exports of cotton have been projected at 60 lakh bales this season against 50 lakh bales last season. There are a couple of reasons why India could be exporting more cotton this season. One, Indian cotton is competitive in the global market. Currently, Indian cotton is quoted at 68.39 US cents a pound against the Cotlook index of 76.70 cents a pound and International Commodity Exchange December contracts ruling at 68.92 cents a pound. Two, India has huge stocks on offer with 107.50 lakh bales being carried over to this season from last. Third, India offers cotton in small consignments of 5,000 bales and is nearer to destinations such as Bangladesh, China, Vietnam and Cambodia, which are now looking to import the natural fibre to meet their needs. This will save cost for the importing parties. So far, at least 10 lakh bales are reported to have been exported since the beginning of October. India is also expected to import 14.50 lakh bales of cotton against 16 lakh bales last season. The textile industry imports long-staple fibre cotton from countries such as Egypt as the quantity produced in India is not able to meet the demand for finer quality products. According to CAI, cotton production is lower this year in Haryana, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh. Currently, cotton prices are hovering around Rs 40,000 for a candy (356 kg). Raw cotton or kapas, on the other hand, is ruling at Rs 5,330 a quintal against the minimum support price (MSP) of Rs 5,515. During the same period last year, kapas ruled at around Rs 5,000. On MCX, cotton December contracts were ruling at Rs 19,930 a bale at noon on November 9 against the previous close of Rs 19,890. Cotton prices are expected to rule lower than MSP this year on account of higher carryover stock and a crop in excess of 350 lakh bales

Maharashtra: Damage to cotton crop crosses ‘economic threshold level’ due to pest attack, monsoon rains: November 06, 2020 – Economic Threshold Level means the pest density has risen to such a level that spraying should be taken up immediately to prevent the pest population from increasing further. The cotton crop in Maharashtra is facing a double whammy of pink bollworm (PBW) attack and boll rot because of excess monsoon rains. In some districts of Vidarbha and Marathwada region, the preliminary survey suggests that the crop damaged has crossed the Economic Threshold Level (ETL). ETL means the pest density has risen to such a level that spraying should be taken up immediately to prevent the pest population from increasing further. District Collector of Wardha, Vivek Bhimanwar told BusinessLine over 50 per cent of the cotton crop has been damaged in the district. Still, these are preliminary estimates; the losses could even as high as 80 per cent. Orders have been given to the Agriculture and Revenue Department to start damage assessment. The Cotton Corporation of India has also been asked to begin procuring the undamaged cotton from farmers immediately, he said. Cotton Framer, Gangadhar Muthe from Wardha said that this year he had planted almost 98 per cent cotton over 40 acres of farmland. But the crop has been badly damaged by pink bollworm. The excess of rainfall has led to the plant growing to almost seven feet, but the bolls, holding the cotton have been rotten as excess moisture has triggered a fungal attack on the crops. The farmers cannot enter the fields and spray fungicides and pesticides due to high and dense vegetative growth. This year the crop loss could be 50 per cent to 80 per cent, he lamented. Framing expert and cotton farmer from Vidarbha, Milind Damle said that crop losses are pushing farmers to sell their cotton to private traders at ₹5,000 per quintal (100 kg) while the MSP is ₹5,825 per quintal. Agricultural scientist and entomologist, Pramod Magar who works for the Krishi Vigyan Kendra (KVK) in Yavatmal district, said that since the crop losses have crossed ETL, therefore farmers should use fungicides such as Copper oxychloride along with streptocycline for boll rot management. For pink bollworm management farmers should avoid mixing pesticides and fungicides along with other agrochemicals, he said. In must be remembered that in 2017 several farmers and farm workers had died, as they had used a deadly cocktail of pesticides and insecticides. Such combinations, while spraying in the fields create aerosols, which are toxic to humans. The toxins cause respiratory distress and impact the nervous system.

China signs contracts to buy commodities from 15 countries including Pakistan: November 08, 2020 – BEIJING-China’s State Development and Investment Corp has announced that it has signed procurement contracts with 20 foreign companies during the ongoing third China International Import Expo being held in Shanghai. The purchase covers more than 20 kinds of commodities including grain, fruit, textiles and chemical products from 15 economies such as Pakistan, Cambodia, Indonesia and South Africa, according to China Daily on Saturday. “The timely CIIE demonstrated China’s determination to continue to open up to the outside world. At the same time, it reflected confidence from the international community in the prospects of the Chinese market,” said Bai Tao, Party secretary and chairman of SDIC. China is committed to taking initiative in the mechanism of global sharing and enabling the global cooperation to be more flexible with an open mind and measures, Bai said. “SDIC will continue to deepen cooperation in important fields and key industries with partners both at home and abroad, so as to share opportunities brought by the CIIE, go hand in hand and contribute to the promotion of global economic development and regional economic and trade exchanges,” he added. Meanwhile, the first batch of cherries is expected to be exported from Pakistan to China next year, said Li Wei, business representative of Huazhilong International Trading Private Ltd. Pakistan. “Pakistani cherries are really good, including sweetness and quality. China can provide technical assistance to manage orchards, while Pakistan can provide workers, so that both sides can achieve win-win cooperation,” he said in an interview with the CEN at the third China International Import Expo (CIIE) being held in east China’s Shanghai. Previously, media reported that export of Pakistani cherries has been hindered by cold chain management, market information system, packaging and processing facilities. Li Wei said that to tackle the problem of cherry fruit fly, 60-70 degree hot water bath treatment and the following cold storage is a solution. Now as cold chain technology lags behind in Pakistan, we will develop it and strive to solve it next year. Referring to why he embarked on export business of agricultural products from Pakistan, Li Wei said the general manager of the company visited Pakistan by chance and found that there was a great business opportunity for the export of agricultural products from Pakistan to China. Therefore, in the second half of 2018, 24 tons of mango were exported from Pakistan to China and sold out in Xinfadi, a large wholesale market of fruits, vegetables, and meat for Beijing. “It was the first to enter Beijing by air cargo transport from Lahore.” This year, the company was officially registered in Pakistan. According to Li Wei, Pakistani mango is comparable to those from Australia and the Philippines. Although the price is more expensive than domestic mango, Pakistani mango is better in terms of variety, appearance, quality, among others. The sugar content of ripe mango can reach 22.68%. “It tastes best at 75% – 80% maturity,” he added. There is seasonal difference in the marketing of Pakistani mango in China. “The mango season in Pakistan starts from August 20 to November 20, while there are almost no mangoes in southern China in November. Pakistani mango can extend the mango season by two months compared with Chinese mango. It has a time advantage,” Li Wei explained. The mango orchard adopts the cooperation mode between China and Pakistan. “Chinese side provides technology and sends technical staff in fields of inorganic fertilizer, bagging, picking, disinfection, transportation, while Pakistani side provides labor. Finally, through cross-border e-commerce air transportation, Chinese customers can eat fresh mango within a week after placing an order,” he added. If the pandemic improves next year, China will import large quantities of Pakistani mangoes. On the development of high value-added mango products, he said that in the next step, they may cooperate with domestic snack manufacturers to produce dried mango products. Regarding the other potential agricultural products in Pakistan, Li Jinhuan, Executive Director of Huazhilong International Trading Private Ltd. Pakistan, said that besides mango, the company also exports other Pakistani agricultural products such as cotton, Morchella, rice and corn. “We have received orders for Morchella from China before. Similar to fungus, Morchella is also a kind of medicinal material. It is scarce in China, with large demand and high price. Although the Morchella output in Pakistan is low and it’s difficult to buy, the price is much lower than that in China,” Li Jinhuan added. The China International Import Expo (CIIE), hailed as “an innovation in the history of global trade,” opened its third edition in Shanghai on Nov.4 and will last until Nov. 10

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